The feasibility of combining NASA satellite data, general circulation models,
and hydrologic model to inform decision making for flood mitigation on the
Devils Lake basin of North Dakota
Investigators: Xiaodong Zhang (Univ N. Dakota)
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Abstract
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The dramatic 24-foot rise in elevation of Devils Lake in northeastern North Dakota since 1993
has flooded both residential and agricultural areas surrounding the lake.
Another 10-foot rise would result in the lake's overspill.
The North Dakota State Water Commission (NDSWC) has the primary responsibility to provide effective
management of North Dakota's water resources. Over the past 15 years, the NDSWC, in collaboration
with the Devils Lake Basin Joint Water Resource Board, has implemented numerous flood mitigation
projects for Devils Lake, costing more than $500 million, to raise levees, improve roads, and
build an outlet. The rising water has destroyed hundreds of homes and businesses, inundated
thousands of acres of productive farmland, and displaced nearly 1,000 people, about 15% of the population.
To significantly enhance the NDSWC's long-term decision making process for managing the
Devils Lake flooding, the proposed project will estimate future climate conditions in the region
by combining historical data on temperature, precipitation, air humidity, and wind speed with
an ensemble of Global Climate Model (GCM) projections, including the NASA GISS ModelE.
The generated regional climate change data, downscaled from global data using SRTM, will be
combined with current data from NASA satellites and models
(e.g., TRMM/TMI, Aqua/AMSR-E, LPRM, Aqua/AIRS, GPROF, GLDAS) and input to a
rainfall-runoff model and a reservoir simulation model.
The many climate scenarios will allow us to explore a wide range of possible changes in
temperature and precipitation and simulate low-frequency, high-impact flood events.
The proposed project is an innovative practical application of NASA satellite observations
to long-range climate forecasts, to address a current, major problem of water management
that has enormous financial and social implications.
The enhancement of NDSWC's long-term decision making process by integrating NASA resources
with our new approach will clearly demonstrate the societal benefits of NASA products.
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NASA Products
Ensemble of Global Climate Model (GCM) projections, including the NASA GISS ModelE
TRMM/TMI, Aqua/AMSR-E, LPRM, Aqua/AIRS, GPROF, GLDAS
Project Partners
North Dakota State Water Commission (NDSWC)
Decision Support Tools
NDWSC decision-making
Reports
